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Analyst: Nokia’s fall 'unbelievable'

Nokia’s second quarter results show another big loss and a decline in market share. Analysts say the company has some way to go before it can be turned around. Since the company announced it would rely on the Windows Phone operating system for its smartphones, Nokia’s share price has fallen 84 percent.

Nokian kyltti.
Image: Yle

That reflects lowered expectations among analysts and investors, which were partially confounded by stronger-than-expected sales figures of 4 million Lumia smartphones shipped in the first quarter. Including Symbian phones, Nokia sold 10.2 million smartphones in the second quarter, a 39 percent year-on-year drop.

"Initially I am positively surprised about the Lumia, but the fall in Symbian is breathtaking," analyst Horace Dediu of Asymco told Yle News. "Falling to 10 million smartphones is unbelievable compared to one year ago."

Dediu believes the company’s core business is "going down faster than anyone expected." It has lost its dominant position in the smartphone market, and is now trailing rivals like Apple and Samsung.

"The company is racing to catch up with the Lumia smartphone before it runs out of cash," said Dediu.

'Too dependent on Microsoft'

"I think currently the company is too dependent on Microsoft," Juha Varis, who holds Nokia shares as part of the Danske Invest Finnish Equity Fund, told Reuters. "What happens if this marriage ends? We would prefer to have a second option to Windows."

Nokia’s fate is the subject of intense speculation. Dediu’s preferred comparison is with the American handset maker Motorola.

The company had a huge global hit with the 2004 Razr phone, but failed to build on that success. The stark example shows the depth of the challenge Dediu believes Nokia is facing.

"Once it lost momentum with the Razr, and there wasn't anything following it, Motorola went through a trauma," explained Dediu. "The company lost two thirds of its head count, and it had to bring in an investor. If they didn't play their cards perfectly, they could not have exited successfully."

One option Nokia has explored in recent months is better exploitation of its 30,000 patents. Dediu believes that would offer Nokia workers little comfort.

"There could be a business there, but it would hardly employ anyone at all," warned Dediu.

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