The left’s absence from the second round is unprecedented, with voters left without a straight left-right choice for the first time.

”There is not a pure bourgeois versus socialist configuration,” said Pernaa. “Now the battle is for the working class soul, in that neither Niinistö nor Haavisto is a candidate working class voters can relate to.”

On the evidence of the first round, Niinistö and Haavisto are of the same opinion on European issues, but their ideological worldviews diverge.

“Niinistö is bourgeois and more conservative,” said Pernaa. “City-dwellers, liberals, greens and those who swear by tolerance will support Haavisto.”

Election discussion heating up

Pernaa said that he believes that the second round promises a more vigorous debate. He sees Niinistö’s campaign as very cautious so far, and expects a more courageous style in debates with Haavisto before the second round of voting.

None of the six eliminated in the first round has endorsed either of the two remaining candidates. Pernaa is following the decisions of those who supported the social democrats in the last parliamentary election.

“Centre party conservatives and Christian Democrats will probably decide to support Niinistö in the second round,” said Pernaa. “Left Alliance voters will support Haavisto. SDP supporters are interesting, because a third of them voted for Lipponen, a third for Niinistö and a third for Haavisto.”

The researcher believes that Haavisto’s liberal views and sexuality could block Finns’ party supporters from supporting Haavisto. At the same time Niinistö’s pro-European outlook could make it hard for them to support him.

Favourite still in the lead

Pernaa sees Niinistö as a very clear favourite, because the second-placed candidate usually enters the second round with at least 20 percent support.

“Niinistö’s pole position has lasted almost six years,” said Pernaa. “It’s a remarkable phenomenon, because there was an almost 15 percent ‘Niinistö bonus’ compared to support for his party. In addition, the power relations between the parties are such that support for the left is so small that Sauli Niinistö’s lead will probably last through the second round.”